MLS week 16

[rolltide]

30-23-4 +16.22 (staked 198.20, +8.1%)

some interesting games today but will keep stakes low as I have bigger bets coming on Sun/Mon matches


DC United vs Philadelphia
- DC made a splash adding De Rosario to central MF and McDonald to central defense. Just once in franchise history have the Union shut a team out away from home so I believe DC will keep that streak alive. In DeRo, Pontius, Najar, and Davies they have 4 offensive minded starters that pressure defenses which is pretty good for MLS. Philly's Ruiz won't play today as he's down in Mexico shopping for a new team but that allows LeToux to move back to striker which is a much better fit for him. More of a gut pick that we'll be seeing a lot of goals

DC/PHI over 2.5 2u +119

San Jose vs NY Red Bulls
- I believe San Jose play to their max tonight for a number of reasons. First, they're completely embarrassed at having only drawn LA 0-0 at home last week despite playing up a man forever and LA using midfielder Magee in net after LA shuffled through their first two keepers in 43 minutes. Second, the Earthquakes were embarrassed by NY earlier in the year in the worst match they've played in a long time. No doubt that the Red Bulls wanted some revenge from SJ kicking them out of the playoffs, and they got it. The Red Bulls schedule is certainly in San Jose's favor here. 13 days ago the Red Bulls were in Portland then they flew to Seattle for a match just 9 days ago, then to Chicago just 6 days ago. They beat NYFC midweek in US Open Cup but now have to fly across the nation again to face SJ. They'll be without Marquez in central defense and but get both Agudelo and Ream back from USMNT. Not everything is peachy with SJ's lineup though. They just sent away 25 year old central defender, McDonald, and Ike Opara is still out injured which will hurt the defense. In MF Bobby Convey will miss out but they do get Wondolowski back from the Gold Cup to join Johnson and Lenhart. Another game that will see some goals as the Red Bulls have scored in 1H in something like 13 straight MLS games. Match in Stanford stadium which will see 30k fans, roughly 3x the normal SJ crowd. Tiny field which certainly benefits SJ.

San Jose 2u +175

also leans on both Dallas, Portland over goals, and Chivas USA pk

 

[nojuice9]

good luck.

 

[rolltide]

with DC game in I decided to play the leans for my minimum 1u bets ... no writeups though

Dallas 1u +100
Portland o2.5 1u +105
Chivas USA 1u +145

 

[rolltide]

DC 2-1 +2.38
SJ 2-2 -2.00
DAL 2-0 +1.00
POR 1-2 +1.05
CUSA 1-1 -1.00

33-25-4 +17.65 (staked 205.20, +8.6%)

good sized play posted later today

 

[rolltide]

Colorado vs Houston
- two teams really struggling as Colorado have just 2 wins in 10, Houston 1 win in 10. Neither have played a good match in ages although Colorado did win 1-0 late in Portland and have tied 7 of those last 10, but they need to make a stand and I think Sunday is the day. One thing you can always count on with the Rapids is that they'll play great on the Independence Day game which this year is July 3. The stadium is packed for the post-game fireworks and the fans have been rewarded with a tremendous 11-2-2 all-time record. Last year they completely dominated the Red Bulls but missed a half dozen sitters en route to a nauseating 1-1 draw which cost me a 6u bet. From a lineup standpoint solid striker, Conor Casey, picked up an early red in Columbus so is suspended but their best player, Omar Cummings, is now fit to start along side Folan who has 2G, 2A in his 11 appearances. Colorado have allowed 7 goals in last 2 games on bad mistakes including backpasses that were picked off, own goal, and major defensive give-aways. The bad news is they happened but the good news is they're easily correctable and the coach was certainly pressing that point home this week as he wasn't happy with the errors..."those were two or three of the worst mistakes I have seen from this group since I have been here” coach Gary Smith said. While the defense has been suspect the offense has been solid even without Cummings. Colorado have scored in 6 straight matches and in 19 of past 22 at home. In the past 2 years they've lost just 1 out of 18 home games against a current Eastern Conference team and have certainly played well here against Houston, shutting them out in 4 of the past 5 meetings.

If Colorado is struggling then Houston is a disaster right now. Tally Hall in goal has saved a number of points for them this year and I'd have to go back to the DC game in April to find a half decent performance from the Dynamo. Their keeper has been great, MF Brad Davis perhaps league MVP, and young strikers very good, but the back 4 and other MF are atrocious. They've allowed a goal in 7 straight games and in 12 of last 13 and will likely be without Davis for this match. As mentioned, he's been tremendous this year leading the MLS iwth 9 assists and without his left footed service on crosses and free kicks the Dynamo have no real offense. He's the only guy that has started all 17 matches and leads team in assists, 3rd in goals, 4th in shots and SOG, and takes every free kick and corner. I know he traveled with the team but will be a game time decision whether he plays.

Colorado has been crushed with injuries all year but they are fully healthy now with Casey the only player missing due to last week's ejection. The other 10 starters will be the same guys that started the MLS Cup final in November and they're probably the only team in MLS that can use the same X or XI guys as in last year's playoffs. The only thing I don't like about this match is the ref will be Baldomero Toledo, the most inconsistent and insane ref in MLS. He's pulled 4 reds in 8 games this year which is way up from his .3 reds/game career average. On the positive he's done 15 Houston games in his career with the Dynamo winning just 3 times and he's pulled red in 5 straight Houston matches, 6 reds in total (in just those 5 games!). So, he's never a guy you want doing the game with a med/large bet unless he's on your side...let's hope he is. The Rapids should push their Independence weekend record to 12-2-2 with a nice win tonight. Your choice on taking med/big with quarter ball -125 or medium with +115 to win. I'm going with the latter

Colorado 5.5u +115

 

[kidman232]

I cant argue with your logic on this match up, going the chalkier route though and taking them pk -235

 

[kidman232]

lucky not to get a card there, let alone not being shown the door. looks like maybe hes on colorado tonight

 

[rolltide]

COL 0-0 -5.5

33-26-4 +12.15 (staked 210.70, +5.8%)